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Sam Ghosh Founder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private Limited Bangalore, Karnataka
Indian demographic trends: 2030 and beyond, part1: Basic Trends : Birth Rate, Death Rate, Fertility, Life Expectancy
8 answers/comments
06:10:19 AM, 11th August, 2019
  • Sam GhoshFounder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private LimitedBangalore, Karnataka

    Demography is the study of the population- not just size but the composition of the population. Demography is one of the few fundamental forces which shapes economics, domestic and foreign policies, political priorities and trends, and brings policy opportunities and challenges.

    Study of demography is vital for not only for policymakers to judge the suitability and expected success of the policy but also for long term investors, entrepreneurs and marketers.

    More than business cycles and fads- demography makes and breaks economies, countries and businesses.


    BASIC TRENDS IN INDIAN DEMOGRAPHY

    Contrary to popular belief, there is no population explosion in India. Mathematically, an “explosion” is defined by accelerated growth. In reality, the birth rate in India (per 1000 people) has been decreasing consistently at a CAGR of 1.4% for several decades. The death rate has also been decreasing but seems to be bottomed out and expected to increase in future.

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  • Sam GhoshFounder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private LimitedBangalore, Karnataka

    The fertility rate decreased from nearly 6 per woman in the 1960s to below 2 per woman and epxected to stabilise in that range.

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  • Sam GhoshFounder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private LimitedBangalore, Karnataka

    The number of birth per year increased from around 19 million per year in 1960s to 28 million during 2008-2010 but seems to have a decreasing trend after that.

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  • Sam GhoshFounder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private LimitedBangalore, Karnataka

    Number of Births (2020 – 2050) - Millions

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  • Sam GhoshFounder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private LimitedBangalore, Karnataka

    The population growth rate topped out in the range ~2.4% in the 1980s and decreased to around 1% now. This decreasing trend is expected to continue.

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  • Sam GhoshFounder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private LimitedBangalore, Karnataka

    Life expectancy at birth increased from around 40 years in the 1960s to around 70 years now and expected to maintain that upward trend.

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  • Sam GhoshFounder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private LimitedBangalore, Karnataka

    Overall, we are heading towards an ageing population – lowering birth rate, lowering the number of births, lowering fertility, increasing life expectancy.

    For the last several decades, India has been touted as a country of young people. In the following decades, this is going to change and policies and business strategies need to change accordingly.

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  • Sam GhoshFounder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private LimitedBangalore, Karnataka

    Data Source: All data collected from DataBank from The World Bank.

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