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Sam Ghosh Founder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private Limited Bangalore, Karnataka
Indian demographic trends: 2030 and beyond part 3 : Composition of Population - Working Age And Non-Working Age Population
5 answers/comments
06:31:34 AM, 11th August, 2019
  • Sam GhoshFounder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private LimitedBangalore, Karnataka

    According to Indian standards, working-age begins at age 15 and lasts till 59. So, let us begin our analysis with that.
    The below charts shows the trends in the age groups – “0 - 14”, “15 – 59” and “60 and above”.


    Population by age-groups (1960 - 2050) – Millions

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  • Sam GhoshFounder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private LimitedBangalore, Karnataka

    Population by age-groups (2020 - 2050) – Millions

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  • Sam GhoshFounder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private LimitedBangalore, Karnataka

    Population by age-groups (2020 - 2050) - Percentage Share

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  • Sam GhoshFounder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private LimitedBangalore, Karnataka

    We can see that the majority of Indians (63.5%) are in the working-age population and this will remain in that range for many decades to come. The change which we will experience is in the “0-14” and “60 and above” age groups. Now around 26% of the population is in the “0-14” age-group which will be 23% in 2030, 21% in 2040 and 19% in 2050.

    Now, let us see the trend in Age Dependency Ratio (Non-working -age population / Working-age-population)

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  • Sam GhoshFounder and SEBI Regd. Investment Adviser at Wisejay Private LimitedBangalore, Karnataka

    Note: The age dependency ratio here is calculated based on the working-age group of “15-59” not “15-64” as in the case of the world bank.

    We can see that the age dependency ratio has been decreasing for decades giving India a “demographic dividend” but it is expected to start increasing around 2030. To keep up the economic growth will necessitate boosting labour force participation especially India’s abysmal female labour force participation along with the Total Factor Productivity i.e. social and technological reforms will more deciding factor for growth post-2030 rather than simply riding the “demographic dividend”.

    Note: A large working-age population is an asset and as in all assets the value depends on the ability to utilise it. It requires a strong policy framework for human capital development and incentives for job creation. Without these, the large working-age population may result in social and political unrest, increased crime rate and brain-drain.

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